Juan Soto was traded to the Yankees this past week. The effects of the trade are already being seen on his baseball card values. How long can it last?
Juan Soto is dominating the baseball card market, at least for this week. The recent trade to the New York Yankees is giving Soto cards a boost in mid December, a time when baseball cards are typically not the hottest item on the sports card marketplace.
**Note: The following is not meant as investment advice. Everyone needs to do their own due diligence when it comes to purchasing or selling sports cards!
The driving factor, beyond Soto being a popular young player in the game, is the trade from the Padres to the Yankees. A Padres uniform does not carry nearly the collector cache that a Yankees uniform when it comes to the collectibility of a sports card. Yankees fans are in great abundance worldwide and a player can see a sharp increase in the value of their sports cards once they sign on with the Bronx Bombers.
Here is what the Card Ladder Linear Sales Volume Graph looks like from this past week for Juan Soto cards:
Notice the Spike there around 12/05? That would be the effects of the trade announcement. While the cards are seeing a sharp increase in price and sales volume immediately following the trade, one should ask, what does the future hold and will these prices hold up?
**Pricing Note: To get an idea of the price hike itself, on the 2018 Topps Chrome Update #HMT55 Juan Soto Rookie Card graded PSA 10, the Price in mid november and throughout the past year bounced around between $70-$80. Upon the trade being announced, the same card was moving in the $95-$100 range up until today, December 8th.**
There are two main factors that will keep Soto’s cards in this lofty air:
- Soto’s contract is up at the end of the coming season, will he sign an extension with the Yankees to remain there for what could be the rest of his career?
- If no extension, will he contribute heavily to the Yankees making a World Series run?
Now, if both of these things happen, we could see a large increase moving forward. If he signs an extension it will definitely keep his cards at a loftier height for a longer period of time. Of course, this also provides he keeps playing as he has throughout his career. A drop-off in his caliber of play may have an effect on his card values regardless.
While those are all positive effects to his card values, what about the possibility of his card value going down? The sports card world is a finicky bunch and there are many things that could cause his cards to drop in value.
One of the near term events could be the signing of Shohei Ohtani. There are only so many dollars to go around, and the money that was going to Soto cards, might get shifted to the Ohtani market if the “right” team lands his services.
Another issue could be, what if the Yankees stink even with Soto? His contract is up at the end of this season, what if he is just a rental? What if he gets flipped at the deadline to another team? It will most likely hurt his card values. Buyers need to be aware of this reality and prepare for it.
Whatever you choose to do, as the good doctor says, do it in moderation. Taking a measured approach is never a bad angle. Keep an eye on the events listed above while also keeping an eye on the market overall. It could be the difference between large losses and decent gains.