Football Cards are a bird of a different feather. While the sport is as mainstream as it gets, the pigskin card collecting world isn’t quite as fruitful.
A few posts back, I recounted my early days of collecting using a few memories tied to year one and the 1981 Topps baseball set. As I wrote, it would be that year when my passion was ignited and my adventure in card collecting started. However, this was a bit of a lie, as my very first pack of cards was a rack-pack of 1980 Topps football cards.
While I don’t believe this particular purchase got me all inflamed to collect, it officially goes down as the first ever sports card purchase in my lifetime. Taking this into consideration, football cards should hold a special place in my heart. Unfortunately, as the tried and true collector in me took a back seat to the investor/gambler, football cards faded a bit from my “buy list”.
Now don’t get me wrong, I love football and always have. That said, the cards are a tough product in the current formats to collect and appreciate at current prices. For those that do “invest”, or attempt to recoup some monetary value from their cards, football returns can be sparse.
The bulk of the reasoning is slated around the fact that outside of the QB position, there isn’t much to hone in on when targeting those buy low/sell high acquisitions. The occasional wide receiver, running back, or tight end can bring in a few dollars, especially for their Rookie Card varieties, but the “bangers”, as the kids like to say, are wrapped up in the quarterbacks. Wanna collect defense? Go for it, as it will be a cheap investment. The return will be almost null, as defense is about as collectible as a goalie in Euro Football, or a catcher not named Adley in baseball. Don’t get me started on cards of Offensive Lineman. The most important unit on the field for a winning team, but a total grenade in the pack opening game. Offensive skill positions are where the money and collectibility reside… and the hits for that matter.
Collecting Quarterbacks
We know the top guys are viable investments. Mahomes, Brady, Allen, and Rodgers aren’t going to depreciate with the blowing of the wind. It’s the new rookie that can cause headaches. Football prices tend to rocket up for the current flavor of the month QB, and if they get hurt or have a bad game, watch out below! Brock Purdy was the source of great discontent early on in the 2023 season. A few shaky games and his RPA (Rookie Patch Auto) prices started to plummet. A few weeks later, he is now back to slinging the rock properly and all is well. The damage was done for many who jumped out and ran for the hills however. It’s a touch tricky when the 7th round pick you’ve never heard of gets a start and throws for 250 yards and 2 TD’s in his first game. You better believe the prices will start lurching upwards after that first touchdown pass.
All of this said, not everyone will keep appreciating into their golden years like Brady. Take a look at Russell Wilson, a change of scenery brought in a change of price tag for a guy who was once almost as heralded as Mahomes. Now, after struggling in Denver, his prices are seeing a downward trend and have been for awhile. Does he still have collectors?
There are threads dedicated to the collectibility/investability of Josh Dobbs and Tommy DeVito across Blowout and other forums. I say, buyer beware! It’s best to hold off on getting sucked into the flavor of week 9.
Running Backs & Injuries
Football is a violent sport where injuries can take a major toll. There was a time when investing in running backs was a viable option, but that can’t really be said anymore. Even the best running backs see a much shorter career, not to mention get paired up in a variety of committee roles, which causes a decrease in production. Derrick Henry is by far the most successful running back in recent memory and even his cards stay fairly well grounded. Running backs are very susceptible to injury, which in many cases can stop a good back cold in his tracks before he ever takes off. You just don’t see the Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, or Franco Harris type guy toting the rock for years on end anymore.
They way I see it, running backs are a little like investing in pitchers for baseball. Glitzy and at times seemingly on top of the world, only to come down with an eventual knee issue to crush their season and sometimes their whole career in one play. The main problem with this position comparison is that knee surgery rarely returns a running back to glory like Tommy John surgery can for a pitcher.
I always use LaDainian Tomlinson as a cautionary tale. He was once the quintessential back in the NFL. LaDainian ran, he caught passes out of the backfield, and he had charisma to boot. In the early part of the millenium, he was “the guy” for many years. His 2001 Topps rookie card (remember, no panini for football back then!) graded PSA 10 can be had for a mere $120 today. Oh, and by the way, a PSA 10 version of the card isn’t the easiest thing to come by. The silver border did little for the cards’ ability to stay in decent shape. For a guy who captivated the sport at his position for the better part of a decade, that price isn’t so bad.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, and Pop Stars….
We can start calling this the Taylor Swift effect, but it’s been around for a while. Pass catchers typically rocket up in popularity and value because they act or do something out of the ordinary. Yes, they have to be skilled and decent at their job, but I guarantee you, Travis Kelce card values are far more affected by his dating Taylor Swift, then they are from his play on the field. That said, he has had a long track record of great performance, and his card values were steady, but the recent pop in price isn’t from the myriad of commercials he is doing or his dominant play.
Find me a wide receiver post 2000 that has remained on collector hot lists for longer than 1 year. It’s hard to do and even if you find one, are they a buy and hold? No.
The New Insert Chase
Over the past few years football collectors have had success in the insert set. The rare insert to be exact. Panini began seeding rare inserts into their product that hit around 1 or so per case. Kaboom! in Absolute was one of the first followed by Downtown in Donruss products. These are also similar to Color Blast in Obsidian and Stained Glass in Prizm. All of them reside in the SSP family or Super Short Print. They are very rare and thus have a high price tag.
The insert game is for the gambler though. They can make a group break or a purchased case pay off nicely. To get lucky in a box? Now you are talking, but the rarity is huge! It’s probably best not to count on one.
Thinking about buying one and flipping it?Collectors love them, which is really what drives the value on the open market. So you won’t come by them cheap!
Football cards are different and some knowledge of the market and product is essential. We will see if things change now that Fanatics has a license. Panini did okay with the product but nowhere near the success Basketball has experienced over recent years. Regardless of who produces the cards, it may be that Football is a game of short careers and we as collector’s have very short memories in that we tend to forget about players long after they have played a down. This doesn’t tend to help the long term value of cards. There are values to be had, and definitely some rare gems to obtain, but it takes some luck and steady research to find them.